Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 208.014689 248.850066 298.085722 362.603987 446.095162 552.155639 6.998311e+02
2025-09-14 158.479792 206.171653 270.479504 366.151590 509.669399 725.492208 1.092873e+03
2025-09-21 132.332017 182.807685 256.686832 377.867599 582.813004 939.448760 1.672503e+03
2025-09-28 112.076628 161.762952 239.058443 375.749549 630.353262 1131.892587 2.356933e+03
2025-10-05 103.698421 156.187703 242.912864 408.507767 750.199886 1523.319799 3.849080e+03
2025-10-12 96.051177 149.958385 243.732938 435.305869 869.453894 1992.485461 6.200045e+03
2025-10-19 88.862043 143.024806 241.506568 455.052789 982.286874 2533.628265 9.857957e+03
2025-10-26 81.913656 135.265103 235.995489 466.057141 1079.562635 3118.367225 1.535510e+04
2025-11-02 75.265247 126.991041 227.821362 468.686312 1156.586603 3717.133808 2.337725e+04
2025-11-09 68.386368 117.317323 215.098539 457.120537 1187.808032 4180.812504 3.305349e+04
2025-11-16 62.502574 108.823142 203.474398 445.439758 1214.653193 4670.015978 4.709126e+04
2025-11-23 57.342483 101.149789 192.451403 432.717673 1233.465759 5159.136189 6.711805e+04
2025-11-30 56.154337 101.507176 199.627594 472.644009 1471.600992 7347.688052 1.789843e+05
2025-12-07 52.773928 96.926230 194.819184 477.547966 1580.846488 8998.356699 3.885502e+05
2025-12-14 50.392847 94.167900 193.865545 494.006166 1754.757769 11719.412536 1.231771e+06
2025-12-21 47.255517 89.406189 187.281237 491.019260 1839.376052 13956.977926 3.812345e+06
2025-12-28 46.689289 90.242762 194.836751 537.326404 2218.820199 21656.421179 2.165643e+08
2026-01-04 45.676833 89.937618 199.409438 575.490424 2602.886848 32924.101541 NaN
2026-01-11 44.294211 88.605437 201.015909 603.768885 2967.108838 48690.396885 NaN
2026-01-18 42.567741 86.263739 199.459475 619.583633 3272.573063 68824.884574 NaN
2026-01-25 40.602244 83.141813 195.220503 623.367953 3498.801381 92371.529466 NaN
2026-02-01 38.209777 78.753729 186.714384 606.737470 3542.203734 109486.874833 NaN
2026-02-08 36.017179 74.678745 178.636281 589.986271 3574.453602 129226.027363 NaN